2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kaduna State

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kaduna State
Registered	4,335,208
President before election; Muhammadu Buhari; APC	Elected President ; TBD;

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kaduna State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.^[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.

Background[edit]

Kaduna State is a large, diverse northwestern state with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing an underdeveloped agricultural sector and intense challenges in security as the nationwide kidnapping epidemic, bandit conflict, inter-ethnic violence, and herder–farmer clashes have all heavily affected the state.^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]

Politically, the 2019 elections were categorized as a slight solidification of the Kaduna APC's control as Governor Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai won re-election with over 55% of the vote and the party retained its House of Assembly majority. Federally, the APC regained two of the three Senate seats it lost due to defections and won eleven of the sixteen House of Representatives seats. For the presidency, Kaduna was won by APC nominee Muhammadu Buhari with about 60% but swung slightly towards the PDP. The 2019 elections also showed the political divide between the diverse, Christian-majority Southern region and the mainly Hausa and Fulani, Muslim-majority Northern and Central regions as the former region moved towards the PDP while the latter two regions stuck with the APC.

Polling[edit]

Polling organisation/client	Fieldwork date	Sample size					Others	Undecided	Undisclosed	Not voting
			Tinubu APC	Obi LP	Kwankwaso NNPP	Abubakar PDP

BantuPage	December 2022	N/A	17%	14%	8%	24%	–	33%	7%	7%
Nextier (Kaduna crosstabs of national poll)	27 January 2023	N/A	42.7%	22.6%	4.8%	29.0%	0.8%	–	–	–
SBM Intelligence for EiE (Kaduna crosstabs of national poll)	22 January-6 February 2023	N/A	11%	31%	12%	29%	–	17%	–	–

Projections[edit]

Source	Projection		As of
Africa Elects^[a]^[7]	Tossup		24 February 2023
Dataphyte^[b]^[8]
	Tinubu:	34.71%	11 February 2023
	Obi:	16.56%
	Abubakar:	34.71%
	Others:	14.02%
Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence^[c]^[9]	Abubakar		17 February 2023
SBM Intelligence^[d]^[10]	Abubakar		15 December 2022
ThisDay^[e]^[11]
	Tinubu:	30%	27 December 2022
	Obi:	20%
	Kwankwaso:	20%
	Abubakar:	25%
	Others/Undecided:	5%
The Nation^[f]^[12]^[13]	Tinubu		12-19 February 2023

General election[edit]

Results[edit]

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kaduna State
Party		Candidate	%
	A	Christopher Imumolen
	AA	Hamza al-Mustapha
	ADP	Yabagi Sani
	APP	Osita Nnadi
	AAC	Omoyele Sowore
	ADC	Dumebi Kachikwu
	APC	Bola Tinubu
	APGA	Peter Umeadi
	APM	Princess Chichi Ojei
	BP	Sunday Adenuga
	LP	Peter Obi
	NRM	Felix Johnson Osakwe
	New Nigeria Peoples Party	Rabiu Kwankwaso
	PRP	Kola Abiola
	PDP	Atiku Abubakar
	SDP	Adewole Adebayo
	YPP	Malik Ado-Ibrahim
	ZLP	Dan Nwanyanwu
Total votes			100.00%
Invalid or blank votes			N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district[edit]

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes
									Others
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Kaduna Central Senatorial District^[g]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Kaduna North Senatorial District^[h]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Kaduna South Senatorial District^[i]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD

By federal constituency[edit]

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes
									Others
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Birnin Gwari/Giwa Federal Constituency^[j]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency^[k]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Igabi Federal Constituency^[l]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Ikara/Kubau Federal Constituency^[m]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Jema'a/Sanga Federal Constituency^[n]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Kachia/Kagarko Federal Constituency^[o]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Kaduna North Federal Constituency^[p]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Kaduna South Federal Constituency^[q]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Kaura Federal Constituency^[r]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Kauru Federal Constituency^[s]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Lere Federal Constituency^[t]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Makarfi/Kudan Federal Constituency^[u]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Sabon Gari Federal Constituency^[v]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Soba Federal Constituency^[w]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Zangon Kataf/Jaba Federal Constituency^[x]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Zaria Federal Constituency^[y]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD

By local government area[edit]

The results of the election by local government area.

Local government area	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes	Turnout (%)
									Others
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Birnin Gwari	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Chikun	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Giwa	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Igabi	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Jaba	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Jema'a	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Kachia	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Kaduna North	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Kaduna South	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Kagarko	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Kajuru	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Kaura	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Kauru	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Kubau	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Kudan	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Lere	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Makarfi	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Sabon Gari	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Sanga	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Soba	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Zangon Kataf	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Zaria	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%

Notes[edit]

^ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
^ The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
^ Comprising the local government areas of Birnin Gwari, Chikun, Giwa, Igabi, Kaduna North, Kaduna South, and Kajuru.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Ikara, Kubau, Kudan, Lere, Makarfi, Sabon Gari, Soba, and Zaria.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Jaba, Jema'a, Kachia, Kagarko, Kaura, Kauru, Sanga, and Zangon Kataf.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Birnin Gwari and Giwa.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Chikun and Kajuru.
^ Comprising the local government area of Igabi.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Ikara and Kubau.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Jema'a and Sanga.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Kachia and Kagarko.
^ Comprising the local government area of Kaduna North.
^ Comprising the local government area of Kaduna South.
^ Comprising the local government area of Kaura.
^ Comprising the local government area of Kauru.
^ Comprising the local government area of Lere.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Kudan and Makarfi.
^ Comprising the local government area of Sabon Gari.
^ Comprising the local government area of Soba.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Jaba and Zangon Kataf.
^ Comprising the local government area of Zaria.

References[edit]

^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
^ Arvin, Jariel (2 August 2021). "How kidnap-for-ransom became the "most lucrative industry in Nigeria"". Vox. Retrieved 8 April 2022.
^ Shiklam, John. "In Three Months, Bandits Killed 343 People, Abducted 830 Others in Kaduna". ThisDay. Retrieved 8 April 2022.
^ Egbejule, Eromo. "Who are the 'bandits' terrorising Nigeria's 'Wild Wild West'?". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 8 April 2022.
^ Campbell, John. "Ethnic and Religious Violence Worsen in Kaduna". Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved 8 April 2022.
^ Mahr, Krista (21 February 2019). "Guns, religion and climate change intensify Nigeria's deadly farmer-herder clashes". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 8 April 2022.
^ Elimian, Adrian (24 February 2023). "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. 11 February 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (12 February 2023). "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.

[7] Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".

[9] Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.

[11] EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.

[13] SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).

[15] ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.

[17] The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."

[20] Comprising the local government areas of Birnin Gwari, Chikun, Giwa, Igabi, Kaduna North, Kaduna South, and Kajuru.

[21] Comprising the local government areas of Ikara, Kubau, Kudan, Lere, Makarfi, Sabon Gari, Soba, and Zaria.

[22] Comprising the local government areas of Jaba, Jema'a, Kachia, Kagarko, Kaura, Kauru, Sanga, and Zangon Kataf.

[23] Comprising the local government areas of Birnin Gwari and Giwa.

[24] Comprising the local government areas of Chikun and Kajuru.

[25] Comprising the local government area of Igabi.

[26] Comprising the local government areas of Ikara and Kubau.

[27] Comprising the local government areas of Jema'a and Sanga.

[28] Comprising the local government areas of Kachia and Kagarko.

[29] Comprising the local government area of Kaduna North.

[30] Comprising the local government area of Kaduna South.

[31] Comprising the local government area of Kaura.

[32] Comprising the local government area of Kauru.

[33] Comprising the local government area of Lere.

[34] Comprising the local government areas of Kudan and Makarfi.

[35] Comprising the local government area of Sabon Gari.

[36] Comprising the local government area of Soba.

[37] Comprising the local government areas of Jaba and Zangon Kataf.

[38] Comprising the local government area of Zaria.

[New_Dates-1] Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.

[2] Arvin, Jariel (2 August 2021). "How kidnap-for-ransom became the "most lucrative industry in Nigeria"". Vox. Retrieved 8 April 2022.

[3] Shiklam, John. "In Three Months, Bandits Killed 343 People, Abducted 830 Others in Kaduna". ThisDay. Retrieved 8 April 2022.

[4] Egbejule, Eromo. "Who are the 'bandits' terrorising Nigeria's 'Wild Wild West'?". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 8 April 2022.

[5] Campbell, John. "Ethnic and Religious Violence Worsen in Kaduna". Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved 8 April 2022.

[6] Mahr, Krista (21 February 2019). "Guns, religion and climate change intensify Nigeria's deadly farmer-herder clashes". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 8 April 2022.

[Africa_Elects_state_ratings-8] Elimian, Adrian (24 February 2023). "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.

[Dataphyte_February_projections-10] "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. 11 February 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2023.

[EiE-SBM_February_projections-12] "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.

[14] "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.

[ThisDay_December_projections-16] "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.

[TN_February_projections-18] Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (12 February 2023). "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.

[19] Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.

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v t e (2022 ←) 2023 Nigerian elections (→ 2024)
President	Abia Adamawa Akwa Ibom Anambra Bauchi Bayelsa Benue Borno Cross River Delta Ebonyi Edo Ekiti Enugu FCT Gombe Imo Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Kogi Kwara Lagos Nasarawa Niger Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo Plateau Rivers Sokoto Taraba Yobe Zamfara
Senate	Abia Adamawa Akwa Ibom Anambra Bauchi Bayelsa Benue Borno Cross River Delta Ebonyi Edo Ekiti Enugu FCT Gombe Imo Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Kogi Kwara Lagos Nasarawa Niger Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo Plateau Rivers Sokoto Taraba Yobe Zamfara
House of Representatives	Abia Adamawa Akwa Ibom Anambra Bauchi Bayelsa Benue Borno Cross River Delta Ebonyi Edo Ekiti Enugu FCT Gombe Imo Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Kogi Kwara Lagos Nasarawa Niger Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo Plateau Rivers Sokoto Taraba Yobe Zamfara
Governors	Abia Adamawa Akwa Ibom Bauchi Bayelsa Benue Borno Cross River Delta Ebonyi Enugu Gombe Imo Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Kogi Kwara Lagos Nasarawa Niger Ogun Oyo Plateau Rivers Sokoto Taraba Yobe Zamfara
Houses of Assembly	Abia Adamawa Akwa Ibom Anambra Bauchi Bayelsa Benue Borno Cross River Delta Ebonyi Edo Ekiti Enugu Gombe Imo Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Kogi Kwara Lagos Nasarawa Niger Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo Plateau Rivers Sokoto Taraba Yobe Zamfara
Local	Zamfara
Statewide	Abia Adamawa Akwa Ibom Anambra Bauchi Bayelsa Benue Borno Cross River Delta Ebonyi Edo Ekiti Enugu FCT Gombe Imo Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Kogi Kwara Lagos Nasarawa Niger Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo Plateau Rivers Sokoto Taraba Yobe Zamfara