Opinion polling for the 2025 Philippine Senate election
This article covers opinion polling for the 2025 Philippine Senate election.
Opinion polling in Philippines is conducted by Social Weather Stations (SWS), Pulse Asia, OCTA Research, and other pollsters.
Those who win outright are in bold. Those that are within the margin of error are in italics.
Polling for senatorial elections[edit]
Pollsters usually do face-to-face interviews on respondents. They sometimes present respondents with a mock ballot on which the respondent will mark his or her choices for the Senate. The Senate of the Philippines is elected via multiple non-transferable vote on an at-large basis, where a voter has 12 votes, cannot transfer any of the votes to a candidate, and can vote for up to twelve candidates. If the mock ballot has 13 or more preferences, the pollster classifies it as "invalid."
Pollsters, aside from publishing preferences per candidate, also include other data such as averages on how many candidates the respondents included on their preferences.
Survey details[edit]
| Date/s administered | Pollster | Sample size | Margin of error | Major issues when poll was administered |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11–14, 2024[1] | OCTA | 1,200 | ±3.0% | |
| Mar 6–10, 2024[2] | Pulse Asia | – | – | |
| Dec 10–14, 2023[3] | OCTA | 1,200 | ±3.0% | |
| Sep 30–Oct 4, 2023[4] | OCTA | 1,200 | ±3.0% | |
| Sep 20–30, 2023[5] | RP-MDF | 10,000 | ±1.0% | |
| Apr 15–18, 2023[6] | SWS | 1,200 | ±3.0% |
Per candidate[edit]
By voter preferences[edit]
Before October 2024[edit]
| Candidate | Party | Apr 15–18, 2023 SWS[6] |
Sep 20–30, 2023 RP-MDF[5] |
Sep 30–Oct 4, 2023 OCTA[4] |
Dec 10–14, 2023 OCTA[3] |
Mar 6–10, 2024 Pulse Asia[2] |
Mar 11–14, 2024 OCTA[1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Abalos Jr. | PFP | 8% | 40.3% | 15% | 18% | 12.9% | 21% | |
| Ernesto Abella | Independent | – | – | – | – | 0.6% | – | |
| Persida Acosta | Independent | – | – | – | – | 8.9% | – | |
| Pantaleon Alvarez | Reporma | 2% | – | – | – | 3.3% | – | |
| Bam Aquino | Liberal | 7% | – | 13% | 12% | 17.3% | 7.3% | |
| Lorraine Badoy-Partosa | Independent | – | – | – | – | 0.5% | – | |
| Teddy Baguilat | Liberal | 2% | – | – | – | 0.3% | – | |
| Carl Balita | Aksyon | 0.5% | – | – | – | 2.5% | 2.6% | |
| Herbert Bautista | NPC | 8% | 17.1% | 10% | 12% | 11.0% | 11.7% | |
| Greco Belgica | PDDS | 1% | – | – | – | 1.4% | – | |
| Abigail Binay | MKTZNU | – | – | 10% | 11% | 29.1% | 14.1% | |
| Jejomar Binay | UNA | 15% | – | – | 25% | – | – | |
| Jimmy Bondoc | Independent | – | – | – | – | 0.8% | – | |
| Jose Calida | Independent | – | – | – | – | 0.7% | – | |
| Pia Cayetano | Nacionalista | 23% | 39.6% | 36% | 30% | 37.7% | 26% | |
| Neri Colmenares | Makabayan | 4% | – | 6% | 8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | |
| Dingdong Dantes | Independent | – | – | – | – | 10.4% | – | |
| Noli de Castro | Aksyon | 9% | 20.2% | 19% | 12% | – | 13.7% | |
| Leila de Lima | Liberal | 5% | – | 6% | 7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | |
| Mike Defensor | PFP | – | – | 14% | 7% | 8.9% | 11.3% | |
| Ronald dela Rosa | PDP | 9% | 51.7% | 39% | 47% | 33.2% | 33% | |
| Chel Diokno | KANP | 7% | – | 12% | 7% | 11.2% | 7.3% | |
| Franklin Drilon | Liberal | 8% | – | 13% | 12% | 16.1% | 14.5% | |
| Paolo Duterte | HNP | – | – | 13% | 14% | 13.1% | 15.1% | |
| Rodrigo Duterte | PDP | 25% | – | – | – | 47.7% | 38% | |
| Sebastian Duterte | HNP | – | – | – | – | 13.5% | 16.8% | |
| Guillermo Eleazar | Reporma | 7% | – | 8% | – | 10.4% | 4.8% | |
| Ted Failon | Independent | – | – | – | – | 14.6% | – | |
| Duke Frasco | NUP | – | – | – | – | 1.4% | – | |
| Larry Gadon | KBL | 5% | – | 4% | – | 4.6% | 3.4% | |
| George Garcia | Independent | – | – | – | – | 0.9% | – | |
| Gwendolyn Garcia | PDP | 4% | – | 5% | – | 5.2% | 5.9% | |
| Rex Gatchalian | NPC | 10% | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Bong Go | PDP | 20% | 68.7% | 49% | 53% | 44.2% | 50% | |
| Ferdinand Golez | Independent | – | – | – | – | 0.6% | – | |
| Richard Gomez | PFP | 7% | – | 14% | 11% | 11.6% | 12.7% | |
| Dick Gordon | Bagumbayan | 6% | – | 16% | 14% | 14.8% | 17.6% | |
| Samira Gutoc | Aksyon | 1% | – | – | – | – | 2.1% | |
| Gringo Honasan | Independent | 10% | – | 19% | 18% | 17.5% | 17.6% | |
| Edwin Jubahib | PFP | 0.5% | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Panfilo Lacson | Independent | 16% | 36.9% | 32% | 32% | 28.6% | 34% | |
| Rey Langit | PDP | 1% | – | – | – | 1.3% | 1.7% | |
| Lito Lapid | NPC | 17% | 25.3% | 26% | 20% | 25.4% | 22% | |
| Wilbert Lee | Independent | – | – | – | – | 0.4% | – | |
| Benjamin Magalong | NPC | – | – | – | – | 3.1% | – | |
| Hermilando Mandanas | PDP | – | – | 2% | – | 0.6% | – | |
| Richard Mata | Independent | – | – | – | – | 0.4% | – | |
| Rodante Marcoleta | PDP | 3% | – | 8% | – | 2.4% | 2.2% | |
| Imee Marcos | Nacionalista | 18% | 55.8% | 39% | 42% | 32.1% | 29% | |
| Eric Martinez | PDP | – | – | – | – | 0.8% | – | |
| Cesar Montano | Independent | – | – | – | – | 8.4% | – | |
| Isko Moreno | Aksyon | 14% | 36.5% | 35% | 32% | 31.5% | 27% | |
| Ariel Nepomuceno | Independent | – | – | – | – | 0.3% | – | |
| Victor Neri | Independent | – | – | 3% | – | 2.2% | 3.8% | |
| Willie Ong | Aksyon | – | 24.7% | 21% | 17% | 24.6% | 21% | |
| Serge Osmeña | Independent | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Manny Pacquiao | PROMDI | 19% | 37.2% | 26% | 28% | 33.7% | 32% | |
| Salvador Panelo | PDP | 2% | – | 3% | – | 0.8% | 2.5% | |
| Francis Pangilinan | Liberal | 8% | 19.8% | 19% | 15% | 22.2% | 14.9% | |
| Emmanuel Piñol | NPC | 2% | – | – | – | 3.5% | – | |
| Ariel Querubin | Independent | – | – | – | – | 1.0% | – | |
| Apollo Quiboloy | Independent | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | – | |
| Ralph Recto | Nacionalista | 7% | – | 14% | 15% | 18.8% | 13.9% | |
| Jesus Crispin Remulla | NUP | 1% | – | – | – | 3.6% | – | |
| Bong Revilla | Lakas | 13% | 63.8% | 32% | 35% | 29.6% | 30% | |
| Willie Revillame | Independent | – | 19.4% | 13% | 18% | 25.9% | 14.3% | |
| Leni Robredo | Liberal | 10% | 50.9% | 15% | 17% | 13.6% | 11.7% | |
| Vic Rodriguez | Independent | – | – | – | – | 0.9% | – | |
| Martin Romualdez | Lakas | 5% | 53.4% | – | – | – | – | |
| Yedda Marie Romualdez | Lakas | – | – | – | – | 1.5% | – | |
| Harry Roque | PRP | 4% | – | 8% | 7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | |
| Mar Roxas | Liberal | 10% | – | 11% | 15% | 13.6% | 11.7% | |
| Phillip Salvador | PDP | – | – | 6% | – | 3.9% | 3.6% | |
| Vilma Santos | Nacionalista | 3% | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Tito Sotto | NPC | 18% | 68.9% | 42% | 48% | 51.8% | 52% | |
| Vico Sotto | Independent | 18% | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Anthony Taberna | Independent | – | – | – | – | – | 3.7% | |
| Gilbert Teodoro | PRP | 5% | – | 18% | 19% | 15.2% | 12.6% | |
| Francis Tolentino | PDP | 6% | 63.6% | 28% | 33% | 16.7% | 22% | |
| Antonio Trillanes | Liberal | 6% | – | 10% | 11% | 13.0% | 10.2% | |
| Ben Tulfo | Independent | – | – | – | – | 30.5% | 43% | |
| Erwin Tulfo | Independent | 32% | 64.5% | 60% | 76% | 57.1% | 58% | |
| Luis Raymund Villafuerte | NUP | – | – | 2% | – | 2.8% | 2.8% | |
| Camille Villar | Nacionalista | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Kathryna Yu-Pimentel | PDP | – | – | 4% | – | 5.7% | 4.1% | |
| Don't know | 3% | 1% | 3.5% | |||||
| Refused | 4% | 3% | 1.7% | |||||
| None | 7% | 1.0% | ||||||
| Invalid votes (13 or more names) | ||||||||
Per party[edit]
- Parties (excluding independents) with the plurality of seats in boldface.
- Parties (excluding independents) with the majority of seats are shaded by the party color.
Seats won[edit]
- Totals may not add up to 12 due to margin of error.
| Date | Pollster | Ind
| ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ||||||||||||||||
| Mar 11–14 | OCTA[1] | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | ||
| Mar 6–10 | Pulse Asia[2] | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | ||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||||||
| Dec 10–14 | OCTA[3] | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| Sep 30–Oct 4 | OCTA[4] | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | ||
| Sep 20–30 | RP-MDF[5] | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | ||
| Apr 15–18 | SWS[6] | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | ||
Seats after the election[edit]
Totals may not add up to 24 due to margin of error.
| Date | Pollster | Ind
| |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Mar 11–14 | OCTA[1] | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |||
| Mar 6–10 | Pulse Asia[2] | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |||
| 2023 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Dec 10–14 | OCTA[3] | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |||
| Sep 30–Oct 4 | OCTA[4] | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |||
| Sep 20–30 | RP-MDF[5] | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |||
| Apr 15–18 | SWS[6] | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |||
References[edit]
- ^ a b c d "Erwin Tulfo leads OCTA Research senatorial survey". GMANetwork.com. April 4, 2024. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
- ^ a b c d "March 2024 Nationwide Survey on 2025 Senatorial Election". Pulse Asia. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
- ^ a b c d Pelonia, Ada (January 2, 2024). "Erwin Tulfo leads OCTA's 2025 senatorial survey anew". DZRH. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
- ^ a b c d De Vera-Ruiz, Ellalyn (October 23, 2023). "Erwin Tulfo still most preferred bet for 2025 senatorial race — survey". Manila Bulletin. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
- ^ a b c d "Sotto, Go lead 2025 senatorial survey — RPMD". Manila Standard. October 16, 2023. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
- ^ a b c d "SWS confirms survey for Mr. Arnel Ty on voting preferences for Senators (aided)". SWS. June 13, 2023. Retrieved March 31, 2023.