2024 Brandenburg state election
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All 88 seats of the Landtag of Brandenburg 45 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The next election to the Landtag of Brandenburg is scheduled for 22 September 2024.
Background[edit]
The 2019 Brandenburg state election resulted in the formation of the Third Woidke cabinet; a Kenya coalition of the SPD, CDU, and Greens.[1] The SPD became the strongest party with small losses, just ahead of the AfD, which gained many votes. The CDU lost significantly and fell from second to third place. Die Linke also lost significantly and ended up behind the Greens. Brandenburg United Civic Movements/Free Voters remained in state parliament with 5.0 percent. The FDP missed out with just 4.1 percent.
In the 2021 German federal election, the Social Democratic Party won all 10 constituencies across the state.
Opinion polls[edit]
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
SPD | AfD | CDU | Grüne | Linke | BVB/FW | FDP | BSW | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infratest dimap | 4–8 Apr 2024 | 1,161 | 22 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 3 | – | 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 28 Mar – 7 Apr 2024 | 1,100 | 21 | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 6 |
| INSA | 14–22 Mar 2024 | 1,000 | 19 | 25 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 6 |
| INSA | 8–15 Jan 2024 | 1,000 | 17 | 28 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 10 |
| Forsa | 6–10 Jan 2024 | 1,007 | 22 | 32 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| INSA | 13–22 Nov 2023 | 1,000 | 20 | 27 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 7 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 24 Oct–1 Nov 2023 | 1,017 | 27 | 32 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 7 | 6 | 2.5 | – | 5.5 | 5 |
| 21.5 | 22 | 12 | 4.5 | 5 | 4 | 2.5 | 21.5 | 7 | 0.5 | |||
| Infratest dimap | 8–11 Sep 2023 | 1,160 | 20 | 32 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | – | 4 | 12 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 10–14 Aug 2023 | 1,003 | 25 | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 2 | – | 6 | 5 |
| 22 | 22 | 13 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 2 | 19.5 | 4.5 | Tie | |||
| INSA | 26 Jun–3 Jul 2023 | 1,000 | 21 | 28 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 3 | – | 6 | 7 |
| IFM | 22 May–1 Jun 2023 | 1,000 | 24 | 24 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 4 | – | 2 | Tie |
| Infratest dimap | 19–24 Apr 2023 | 1,200 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | – | 6 | Tie |
| INSA | 27 Mar–4 Apr 2023 | 1,000 | 21 | 25 | 19 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 4 | – | 6 | 4 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 7–13 Mar 2023 | 978 | 23.5 | 26 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 6.5 | 3 | – | 7 | 2.5 |
| pmg – policy matters | 28 Nov–15 Dec 2022 | 1,011 | 27 | 23 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 6 | – | 6 | 4 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 6–18 Nov 2022 | 1,922 | 26 | 26 | 13.5 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 3.5 | – | 6 | Tie |
| INSA | 4–10 Oct 2022 | 1,000 | 22 | 25 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 4 | – | 6 | 3 |
| Infratest dimap | 22–26 Sep 2022 | 1,165 | 24 | 24 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 4 | – | 6 | Tie |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 4–11 Sep 2022 | 1,100 | 26.5 | 25 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 5 | – | 6.5 | 1.5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 9–17 May 2022 | 1,001 | 30 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 4.5 | – | 5.5 | 11 |
| Infratest dimap | 21–24 Apr 2022 | 1,182 | 30 | 19 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 6 | – | 3 | 11 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 21–29 Mar 2022 | 1,002 | 29 | 20 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 5 | – | 6 | 9 |
| Forsa | 9–17 Dec 2021 | 1,008 | 28 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6 | – | 5 | 11 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 8–16 Dec 2021 | 1,040 | 34 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | – | 6 | 15 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 7–14 Oct 2021 | 980 | 32 | 19.5 | 9 | 9.5 | 7 | 9.5 | 7 | – | 6.5 | 12.5 |
| 2021 federal election | 26 Sep 2021 | – | 29.5 | 18.1 | 15.3 | 9.0 | 8.5 | – | 9.3 | – | 10.3 | 11.4 |
| Infratest dimap | 25–30 Aug 2021 | 1,157 | 34 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 | – | 5 | 17 |
| Infratest dimap | 12–15 May 2021 | 1,183 | 23 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 7 | – | 5 | 5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 7–13 May 2021 | – | 22 | 18 | 14 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 5 | – | 5 | 3 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 12–19 Mar 2021 | – | 24 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 10.5 | 9 | 5 | – | 5.5 | 6 |
| Forsa | 10–15 Dec 2020 | 1,001 | 23 | 16 | 20 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 4 | – | 4 | 7 |
| Infratest dimap | 12–17 Nov 2020 | 1,002 | 26 | 19 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 5 | – | 4 | 7 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 30 Sep–7 Oct 2020 | 1,089 | 23 | 19 | 17 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 2 | – | 5.5 | 4 |
| INSA | 29 Sep–6 Oct 2020 | 1,043 | 21 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 4 | – | 4 | 1 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 19–27 Aug 2020 | – | 26 | 16.5 | 19 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | – | 5.5 | 7 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 12–19 Jun 2020 | – | 28 | 16 | 22 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | – | 4 | 6 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 4–11 May 2020 | – | 29.5 | 20 | 23 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 4 | 4 | – | 4.5 | 6.5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 3–8 Apr 2020 | – | 28 | 21 | 20.5 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 3 | – | 5.5 | 7 |
| Infratest dimap | 31 Mar–4 Apr 2020 | 1,000 | 27 | 20 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 4 | – | 4 | 7 |
| Forsa | 20–25 Feb 2020 | 1,001 | 22 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 3 | – | 6 | 4 |
| Infratest dimap | 11–16 Nov 2019 | 1,000 | 25 | 22 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 5 | – | 5 | 1 |
| 2019 state election | 1 Sep 2019 | – | 26.2 | 23.5 | 15.6 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 4.1 | – | 4.1 | 2.7 |
References[edit]
- ^ "Who governs? These coalitions are likely in Saxony and Brandenburg". Handelsblatt (in German). 1 September 2019.
