2023 Bauchi State gubernatorial election

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2023 Bauchi State gubernatorial election
← 2019 18 March 2023 2027 →
Registered2,749,268
Turnout38.50%[a]
 
Nominee Bala Mohammed Sadique Abubakar Halliru Dauda Jika
Party PDP APC New Nigeria Peoples Party
Running mate Muhammad Auwal Jatau Shehu Aliyu Musa Dahuwa Mohammed Gadauji
Popular vote 525,280 432,272 60,496
Percentage 50.78% 41.79% 5.85%
LGA results

Abubakar:      40–50%      50–60%

Mohammed:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Governor before election

Bala Mohammed
PDP

Elected Governor

Bala Mohammed
PDP

The 2023 Bauchi State gubernatorial election took place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Bauchi State, concurrent with elections to the Bauchi State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.[1][2] The election—which was postponed from its original 11 March date—was held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections.[3] Incumbent PDP Governor Bala Mohammed initially declined to run for re-election, instead running for president. However, after losing the PDP presidential primary in May 2022, Mohammed was renominated in a rerun primary. Mohammed was re-elected as governor by a 9% margin over first runner-up and APC nominee — former Chief of the Air Staff Sadique Abubakar.

Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the Peoples Democratic Party nominating former Secretary to the State Government Ibrahim Kashim on 25 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated Abubakar on 26 May.[4][5] However, Kashim withdrew from the nomination on 30 May after Mohammed lost the PDP presidential primary; on 4 June, Mohammed won a rerun primary unopposed.[6][7] On 4 August, Senator Halliru Dauda Jika—who came second in the APC primary—won the primary of the smaller New Nigeria Peoples Party after he defected from the APC two months prior.[8]

On 20 March, collation completed and INEC Returning Officer — Abdulkarim Sabo Mohammed — declared Mohammed as the winner. Official results show Mohammed winning over 525,000 votes and 51% of the vote as runner-up Abubakar received around 432,000 votes and 42% of the vote while Jika came third with 60,000 votes and 6% of the vote.[9][10] However, Abubakar rejected the results and alleged widespread fraud.[11]

Electoral system[edit]

The Governor of Bauchi State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background[edit]

Bauchi State is a large, diverse northeastern state with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing an underdeveloped yet vital agricultural sector, desertification, and a rising sexual violence epidemic.

Politically, the state's 2019 elections were a mixed bag for both major parties. In federal elections, Buhari held the state for the APC albeit with a reduced margin of victory while the APC swept all senate seats by winning back two seats it lost due to defections. Both major parties lost seats in House of Representatives elections to the benefit of the minor People's Redemption Party. On the state level, Mohammed unseated APC incumbent Governor Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar by a narrow margin as the APC held the House of Assembly. During the terms, defections rose the APC's numbers in the federal House while increasing PDP numbers in the state assembly, solidifying Bauchi's politically competitive status.

Over the course of Mohammed's term, his administration stated focuses included education, forging a positive business environment, mineral resources, and agriculture development.[12] In terms of his performance, Mohammed was praised for signing a bill to combat violence against women and following through on some campaign promises but was criticized for awarding inflated contracts to a company in which he is a director, buying the state PDP chairman a car with government money, a flawed COVID-19 response, continued corruption investigations from his time as FCT Minister, attacks on press freedoms, and his brief early 2021 spat with Benue State Governor Samuel Ortom which descended into ethnic gibes.[13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]

Primary elections[edit]

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][21] In terms of zoning, some candidates and community leaders under the group Zauren Mutanen Bauchi have requested that the governorship be zoned to either the Bauchi North or Central senatorial districts as the last three Bauchi governors have come from the Southern district. However, no major party has yet closed their primaries to candidates from the South.[22]

All Progressives Congress[edit]

Arguments over zoning divided the state APC ahead of the primary as northern politicians publicly advocated for the party nominee to come from the North senatorial district while prospective candidates from other regions argued for the primary to be kept open.[23]

On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[24] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[25] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[26][27][28][29]

Seven screened candidates participated in the primary, with Chief of the Air Staff Sadique Abubakar winning by a margin of about 9% over first runner-up, Senator Halliru Dauda Jika. In his acceptance speech, Abubakar thanked supportive delegates before calling on his former opponents to work with him for the benefit of the party.[5] However, Halliru Dauda Jika–the first runner-up–left the party for the NNPP a few weeks after the primary and obtained the party's gubernatorial nomination.[30]

Nominated[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Results[edit]

Candidates' vote share

  Sadique Abubakar (36.24%)
  Halliru Dauda Jika (27.23%)
  Nura Manu Soro (26.35%)
  Musa Babayo (6.86%)
  Other candidates (3.32%)
APC primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
APC Sadique Abubakar 370 36.24%
APC Halliru Dauda Jika 278 27.23%
APC Nura Manu Soro 269 26.35%
APC Musa Babayo 70 6.86%
APC Farouk Mustapha 26 2.55%
APC Mahmood Maijama'a 8 0.78%
APC Muhammad Ali Pate 0 0.00%
Total votes 1,021 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 7 N/A
Turnout 1,028 Unknown

People's Democratic Party[edit]

Ahead of the primary, incumbent Governor Mohammed announced that he would run for president.[35] The announcement set into motion an open primary until rumours emerged that Mohammed was still looking to run for governor as a back-up plan. By May, several reports came out with confirmation that Mohammed had purchased a gubernatorial nomination form while concurrently running for president with the intention of having former Secretary to the State Government Ibrahim Kashim win the gubernatorial primary and give Mohammed the nomination if his presidential campaign failed.[36][37]

On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[38] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[39][40]

On the primary date, Kashim was the sole candidate and won the nomination unopposed. In his acceptance speech, Kashim thanked the party while pledging to continue the work of the Mohammed administration.[4] However, a few days after the gubernatorial primary, Mohammed lost the PDP presidential primary and the plan to substitute him in as the gubernatorial nominee immediately commenced.[41] On 31 May, Kashim withdrew from the nomination, stating "I know right from day one that if the governor didn't get the PDP presidential ticket, I will definitely step down for him."[6][42] A few days later, Mohammed reappointed Kashim to his cabinet before winning the rerun primary on 4 June unopposed.[43][7]

In August, Muhammad Auwal Jatau—MHR for Zaki—was picked as the deputy gubernatorial nominee instead of incumbent Deputy Governor Baba Tela. Jatau thanked Mohammed for the "great honour."[44][45]

Nominated[edit]

Withdrew after nomination[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Results[edit]

Original primary results
PDP original primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Ibrahim Kashim 655 100.00%
Total votes 655 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 1 N/A
Turnout 656 100.00%
PDP rerun primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Bala Mohammed 646 100.00%
Total votes 646 100.00%
Turnout 646 98.48%

Minor parties[edit]

Campaign[edit]

As the general election campaign began in June 2022, Mohammed began to attack Abubakar by accusing him and one of his wives—Sadiya Umar Farouq, the serving Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management & Social Development—of stealing public funds to finance his campaign. Abubakar and the APC looked elsewhere as the party dealt with the aftermath of several prominent defections with Senators Halliru Dauda Jika and Lawal Yahaya Gumau joining the NNPP; Jika became the NNPP gubernatorial nominee as well. Pundits identified numerous potential factors for the general election, namely: regional identity—Abubakar is from Bauchi North district which has produced no governors in over 20 years, Jika's candidacy, the power of Mohammed's incumbency, the defections from the APC, and "federal might" in favor of the APC.[48] For each major contender, OrderPaper Nigeria noted strengths and weaknesses with Mohammed being helped by his administration's infrastructural development but hurt by nepotism allegations; Jika being aided by the pre-existing Kwankwasiyya NNPP structure in the state but hurt by regionalism and zoning favoring the northern district; and Abubakar being helped by his military service but hurt by his lack of political experience and APC infighting.[49] By September, multiple reports had classified Jika as a major candidate while the Daily Trust focused on the difficulties incumbent Bauchi governors have faced in their re-election bids.[50] In the same month, Abubakar was embroiled in controversy as he was accused of falsifying his certificates.[51]

In November, a new dynamic entered the race due to the simmering feud between Mohammed and PDP presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar (along with former Governor Ahmadu Adamu Mu’azu and former Senator Abdul Ahmed Ningi).[52] Analysis from The Nation noted the PDP divides as a potentially major factor in the election in addition to regional and religious factors.[53] Conversely, the APC faced division as former Governor Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar backed Mohammed over Abubakar in December 2022.[54] As the election neared in February 2023, review of the race's regional factors noted the importance of the highly competitive, vote-heavy Bauchi South Senatorial District amid the PDP crisis in the area; the likelihood that Abubakar would win the Bauchi North Senatorial District due to its large number of prominent APC stalwarts; and the likelihood that Mohammed would win the Bauchi Central Senatorial District as Jika is expected to split the anti-PDP vote.[55]

Later in February, focus switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Bauchi State voted for Atiku Abubakar (PDP); Abubakar won the state with 50.0% of the vote, beating Bola Tinubu (APC) at 37.1% and Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) at 8.5%. Despite the presidential result, gubernatorial election analysis reiterated the race's competitiveness along with continued fights between Mohammed and other PDP figures.[56][57] Nonetheless, the EiE-SBM forecast projected Mohammed to win based on "how the presidential elections played out."[58]

Projections[edit]

Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[b][59] Tossup 17 March 2023
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[c][58] 		Mohammed 2 March 2023

Conduct[edit]

Electoral timetable[edit]

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[60] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[61]

  • 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
  • 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
  • 9 June 2022[d] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
  • 1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
  • 16 March 2023[e] – Final day of the official campaign period

General election[edit]

Results[edit]

2023 Bauchi State gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes %
AA Magaji Musa
ADP Usman Dankyrana Mustapha
APP Kabiru Abdulhamid Shuwa
AAC Buhari Adamu Idris
ADC Saleh Auwalu Dahiru
APM Auwal Isah
APC Sadique Abubakar
LP Abubakar Ibrahim
New Nigeria Peoples Party Halliru Dauda Jika
NRM Saleh Sulaiman
PDP Bala Mohammed
PRP Farouk Ahmed Umar
SDP Aminu Mohammed
ZLP Khalid Hassan
Total votes 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district[edit]

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Sadique Abubakar
APC 		Halliru Dauda Jika
NNPP 		Bala Mohammed
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Bauchi Central Senatorial District[f] 114,501 43.46% 22,951 8.71% 120,249 45.64% 5,750 2.18% 263,451
Bauchi North Senatorial District[g] 145,714 47.20% 15,448 5.00% 145,185 47.03% 2,392 0.77% 308,739
Bauchi South Senatorial District[h] 172,087 37.23% 22,085 4.78% 259,847 56.22% 8,212 1.78% 462,231
Totals 432,272 41.79% 60,496 5.85% 525,280 50.78% 16,331 1.58% 1,034,379

By federal constituency[edit]

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Sadique Abubakar
APC 		Halliru Dauda Jika
NNPP 		Bala Mohammed
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Alkaleri/Kirfi Federal Constituency[i] 55,500 37.33% 11,806 7.94% 80,312 54.01% 1,069 0.72% 148,687
Bauchi Federal Constituency[j] 69,850 43.95% 5,749 3.62% 80,390 50.59% 2,920 1.84% 158,909
Darazo/Ganjuwa Federal Constituency[k] 41,150 43.58% 10,746 11.38% 40,660 43.06% 1,865 1.98% 94,421
Dass/Bogoro/Tafawa Balewa Federal Constituency[l] 44,960 37.10% 7,062 5.83% 66,160 54.59% 3,016 2.49% 121,198
Gamawa Federal Constituency[m] 22,565 48.80% 1,841 3.98% 21,558 46.63% 272 0.59% 46,236
Jama’are/Itas-Gadau Federal Constituency[n] 28,071 41.89% 6,166 9.20% 32,471 48.45% 310 0.46% 67,018
Katagum Federal Constituency[o] 35,774 55.27% 2,376 3.67% 25,218 38.96% 1,360 2.10% 64,728
Misau/Dambam Federal Constituency[p] 37,773 49.13% 6,215 8.08% 29,658 38.58% 3,234 4.21% 76,880
Ningi/Warji Federal Constituency[q] 35,578 38.61% 5,990 6.50% 49,931 54.18% 651 0.71% 92,150
Shira/Giade Federal Constituency[r] 39,667 47.70% 3,650 4.39% 39,518 47.53% 317 0.38% 83,152
Toro Federal Constituency[s] 29,848 29.71% 3,634 3.62% 65,456 65.16% 1,517 1.51% 100,455
Zaki Federal Constituency[t] 19,637 41.25% 1,415 2.97% 26,420 55.50% 133 0.28% 47,605
Totals 432,272 41.79% 60,496 5.85% 525,280 50.78% 16,331 1.58% 1,034,379

By local government area[edit]

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Sadique Abubakar
APC 		Halliru Dauda Jika
NNPP 		Bala Mohammed
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Alkaleri 15,798 29.89% 2,069 3.92% 34,387 65.06% 598 1.13% 52,852 35.29%
Bauchi 69,850 43.95% 5,749 3.62% 80,390 50.59% 2,920 1.84% 158,909 35.12%
Bogoro 10,436 33.82% 3,253 10.54% 16,589 53.77% 576 1.87% 30,854 42.04%
Damban 11,325 37.27% 4,395 14.46% 13,307 43.79% 1,362 4.48% 30,389 36.82%
Darazo 23,544 49.52% 3,359 7.07% 19,736 41.51% 901 1.90% 47,540 39.88%
Dass 11,596 40.95% 643 2.27% 14,471 51.10% 1,607 5.68% 28,317 42.32%
Gamawa 22,565 48.80% 1,841 3.98% 21,558 46.63% 272 0.59% 46,236 31.79%
Ganjuwa 17,606 37.55% 7,387 15.76% 20,924 44.63% 964 2.06% 46,881 37.93%
Giade 18,023 53.96% 1,114 3.33% 14,145 42.35% 119 0.36% 33,401 45.67%
Itas/Gadau 16,206 42.59% 2,913 7.65% 18,778 49.35% 156 0.41% 38,053 34.41%
Jamaare 11,865 40.96% 3,253 11.23% 13,693 47.27% 154 0.53% 28,965 45.16%
Katagum 35,774 55.27% 2,376 3.67% 25,218 38.96% 1,360 2.10% 64,728 35.13%
Kirfi 11,631 40.36% 3,571 12.39% 13,454 46.69% 161 0.56% 28,817 19.09%
Misau 26,448 56.89% 1,820 3.91% 16,351 35.17% 1,872 4.03% 46,491 36.22%
Ningi 23,795 41.16% 4,178 7.23% 29,515 51.06% 316 0.55% 57,804 33.00%
Shira 21,644 43.50% 2,536 5.10% 25,373 51.00% 198 0.40% 49,751 46.31%
Tafawa Balewa 22,928 36.97% 3,166 5.10% 35,100 56.59% 833 1.34% 62,027 40.75%
Toro 29,848 29.71% 3,634 3.62% 65,456 65.16% 1,517 1.51% 100,455 43.65%
Warji 11,783 34.31% 1,812 5.28% 20,416 59.44% 335 0.97% 34,346 49.43%
Zaki 19,637 41.25% 1,415 2.97% 26,420 55.50% 133 0.28% 47,605 38.70%
Totals 432,272 41.79% 60,496 5.85% 525,280 50.78% 16,331 1.58% 1,034,379 38.18%

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ This figure is based on the number of accredited voters (1,058,381); 1,049,600 voters (38.18%) cast votes (validly or invalidly) while 1,034,379 voters (37.62%) cast valid votes. Another turnout metric used by INEC is based on Permanent Voter Card-holding voters: either the percent of Permanent Voter Card-holding voters that were accredited to vote (38.89%) or the percent of Permanent Voter Card-holding voters that cast a vote—either validly or invalidly (38.56%); also used is the percent of Permanent Voter Card-holding voters that cast valid votes (38.00%).
  2. ^ AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  3. ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  4. ^ The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[62]
  5. ^ The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[63]
  6. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Damban, Darazo, Ganjuwa, Misau, Ningi, and Warji.
  7. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Gamawa, Giade, Itas/Gadau, Jamaare, Katagum, Shira, and Zaki.
  8. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Alkaleri, Bauchi, Bogoro, Dass, Kirfi, Tafawa Balewa, and Toro.
  9. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Alkaleri and Kirfi.
  10. ^ Comprising the local government area of Bauchi.
  11. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Darazo and Ganjuwa.
  12. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Dass, Bogoro, and Tafawa Balewa.
  13. ^ Comprising the local government area of Gamawa.
  14. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Jamaare and Itas/Gadau.
  15. ^ Comprising the local government area of Katagum.
  16. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Misau and Dambam.
  17. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ningi and Warji.
  18. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Shira and Giade.
  19. ^ Comprising the local government area of Toro.
  20. ^ Comprising the local government area of Zaki.

References[edit]

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