List of target seats in the next United Kingdom general election
The next United Kingdom general election will be held before 28 January 2025. These are the target seats for each of the political parties, according to results from the previous election in 2017.[1] Due to boundary changes following the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, these target seats are determined by the notional results of the previous election using the new constituencies as if they were contested in 2019.[2]
List by party[edit]
Conservative[edit]
Labour[edit]
Liberal Democrats[edit]
Reform UK[edit]
The target seats for Reform UK are based on results of the Brexit Party in 2019.[6] The party didn't contest Conservative held seats so their target seats based on the 2019 result are primarily in North East England and Wales.[7]
SNP[edit]
| Scottish National Party target seats[9] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing
required |
Winning party 2024 | ||
| 1 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Conservative Party | 0.79% | |||
| 2 | Dumfries and Galloway | Conservative Party | 1.48% | |||
| 3 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East[note 5] | Conservative Party | 2.61% | |||
| 4 | Edinburgh West | Liberal Democrats | 2.62% | |||
| 5 | Gordon and Buchan[note 5][note 15] | Conservative Party | 3.39% | |||
| 6 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | Conservative Party | 4.26% | |||
| 7 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | Conservative Party | 4.84% | |||
| 8 | Orkney and Shetland | Liberal Democrats | 5.41% | |||
| 9 | Edinburgh South | Labour Party | 10.18% | |||
| Other seat the SNP is targeting | ||||||
| - | North East Fife[note 16] | Scottish National Party[note 16] | 1.00% | |||
Plaid Cymru[edit]
| Plaid Cymru target seats[10] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing
required |
Winning party 2024 | ||
| 1 | Ynys Mon | Conservative Party | 3.48% | |||
| 2 | Caerfyrddin[note 5] | Conservative Party | 4.25% | |||
| 3 | Llanelli | Labour Party | 9.53% | |||
| 4 | Caerphilly | Labour Party | 14.59% | |||
| 5 | Pontypridd | Labour Party | 17.87% | |||
| 6 | Neath and Swansea East[note 5] | Labour Party | 19.70% | |||
Green Party[edit]
| Green Party of England and Wales, Green Party Northern Ireland and Scottish Greens target seats[11] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing
required |
Winning party 2024 | ||
| 1 | Bristol Central[note 5] | Labour Party | 16.23% | |||
| 2 | Isle of Wight West[note 5] | Conservative Party | 19.30% | |||
| 3 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Scottish National Party | 20.26% | |||
| 4 | West Tyrone | Sinn Féin | 20.53% | |||
| 5 | Dunfermline and Dollar[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 21.35% | |||
| 6 | Frome and East Somerset[note 5] | Conservative Party | 21.61% | |||
| 7 | Isle of Wight East[note 5] | Conservative Party | 21.70% | |||
| 8 | Hampstead and Highgate[note 5] | Labour Party | 21.99% | |||
| 9 | East Kilbride and Strathaven[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 22.24% | |||
| 10 | Livingston | Scottish National Party | 22.34% | |||
| 11 | Bathgate and Linlithgow[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 22.46% | |||
| 12 | Edinburgh South West | Scottish National Party | 22.60% | |||
| Other seats Greens are targeting[12] | ||||||
| 82 | Waveney Valley | Conservative Party | 26.45% | |||
| - | North Herefordshire | Conservative Party | - | |||
Northern Ireland parties[edit]
Target seats requiring swings of under 10%:
| Ulster Unionist Party[13] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing Needed |
| 1. | Fermanagh and South Tyrone | Sinn Féin | 0.49% |
| 2. | South Antrim | Democratic Unionist Party | 3.56% |
| Sinn Féin[14] | |||
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing Needed |
| 1. | Upper Bann | Democratic Unionist Party | 8.05% |
| Democratic Unionist Party[15] | |||
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing Needed |
| 1. | North Down | Alliance Party of Northern Ireland | 3.09% |
| 2. | Belfast North | Sinn Féin | 3.88% |
| 3. | South Down | Sinn Féin | 9.06% |
| 4. | West Tyrone | Sinn Féin | 9.20% |
| Social Democratic and Labour Party[16] | |||
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing Needed |
| 1. | South Down | Sinn Féin | 1.80% |
| Alliance Party of Northern Ireland[17] | |||
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing Needed |
| 1. | Belfast East | Democratic Unionist Party | 2.91% |
| 2. | Strangford | Democratic Unionist Party | 7.07% |
| 3. | East Antrim | Democratic Unionist Party | 7.96% |
| 4. | Lagan Valley | Democratic Unionist Party | 8.12% |
Notes[edit]
- ^ Warrington South was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
- ^ Kensington was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
- ^ Beckenham was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
- ^ Heywood and Middleton was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar New seat
- ^ Preseli Pembrokeshire was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Plaid Cymru seat under new boundaries
- ^ Blyth Valley was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but its successor seat is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
- ^ Pudsey was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but merged with Leeds West, is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
- ^ Leeds North West was won by Labour in 2019, but is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ Wyre and Preston North was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but merged with Lancaster and Fleetwood which was won by Labour, is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries
- ^ Westmorland and Lonsdale was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ Hartlepool was won by the Conservatives in the 2021 Hartlepool by-election
- ^ Hull West was won by Labour in 2019, but is notionally an Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ Gordon was won by the SNP in 2019, but is notionally an Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ a b North East Fife was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries. This seat is considered ultra-marginal.
References[edit]
- ^ Leach, Anna; Hoog, Niels de. "UK general election: the seats the Tories will lose if the polls are right". the Guardian. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "List of general election top target seats, by party". The Independent. 16 January 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Conservative Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Labour Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Archived from the original on 10 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Liberal Democrat Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Could Reform UK surge sink Tory election hopes?". BBC News. 16 February 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ Penna, Dominic; Corfe, Ollie (28 February 2024). "Six graphs that show Reform UK could be kingmakers at the election". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Reform UK Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "SNP Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk.
- ^ "Plaid Cymru Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Green Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ Walker, Peter (5 October 2023). "Greens head to Brighton targeting four seats at next election". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "UUP Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Sinn Fein Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "DUP Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "SDLP Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Alliance NI Targets Seats 2024 - Election Polling". www.electionpolling.co.uk. Retrieved 5 May 2024.