Mark van der Laan

Mark van der Laan
Born	Mark Johannes van der Laan 1967 (age 56–57) Netherlands
Alma mater	Utrecht University (PhD)
Awards	COPSS Presidents' Award (2005)
Scientific career
Fields	Statistics Biostatistics
Institutions	University of California, Berkeley
Doctoral advisor	Richard D. Gill Peter J. Bickel
Doctoral students	Katherine Pollard Sündüz Keleş
Website	statistics.berkeley.edu/people/mark-van-der-laan

Mark Johannes van der Laan, Ph.D is a Dutch-American biostatistician. He is currently a Professor of Biostatistics and Statistics at the University of California, Berkeley, where he holds the position of the Jiann-Ping Hsu/Karl E. Peace Endowed Chair in Biostatistics. He has made contributions to survival analysis, semiparametric statistics, multiple testing, and causal inference. He also developed the targeted maximum likelihood estimation methodology. He is a founding editor of the Journal of Causal Inference. Developed in response to challenges dealing with the curse of dimensionality and the complexity of real-world data, Targeted Learning is subfield of statistics applicable across a variety of applications, including the analysis of clinical trials, assessment of (causal) effects in observational and real-world evidence studies, and the analysis of high-dimensional and multi-modal data.

Education and career

Van der Laan was born on July 4, 1967 in the Netherlands, son of Ann and Paul van der Laan, a professor of Statistics. During his youth, he was a competitive chess and tennis player. He also exhibited an early interest in mathematics and statistics, and pursued a joint bachelor’s and master's degree in Mathematics at the University of Utrecht, specializing in Statistics. During his  master’s studies, he spent a year at North Carolina State University, Raleigh, studying at the Department of Statistics and playing on the university’s tennis team.

Mark’s master's thesis, guided by Professor Richard D. Gill, focused on the Dabrowska Estimator and the Functional Delta method. Van der Laan furthered his education at the Department of Mathematics at Utrecht University, as a doctoral student under Professor Richard D. Gill, and completed part of his research at the University of California, Berkeley, under Professor Peter J. Bickel. His doctoral thesis, "Efficient Estimation in the Bivariate Censoring Model," was defended in 1993.

A highlight of Van der Laan’s thesis is the development of the first efficient estimator of the bivariate survival function based on bivariate right-censored failure time data. The main idea was to regularize the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) through artificial extra censoring. This work was further generalized to develop the first regularized NPMLE of a full-data distribution based on general censored data. Another key contribution was an identity for the NPMLE that allowed for an elegant proof of asymptotic efficiency of the NPMLE under minimal conditions. Specifically, for an NPMLE in any censored data problem with censoring satisfying the coarsening at random assumption, we have the following identity:

$\Psi ({\hat {P}}n)-\Psi (P_{0})=(P_{n}-P_{0})D^{*}{{\hat {P}}_{n}}$

where $D_{p}^{*}$ is the canonical gradient (i.e., a score) of the pathwise derivative of $\Psi$ at $P$, which is also called the efficient influence curve. The proof of asymptotic efficiency is now immediate based on empirical process theory. That is, we only need to show that $D_{{\hat {P}}_{n}}^{*}$ falls in a Donsker class such as the class of multivariate cadlag functions with a universal bound on the sectional variation norm, and that we already have consistency in the sense that the $L^{2}(P_{0})$ norm of $D^{*}{{\hat {P}}n}-D^{*}{P_{0}}$ converges to zero in probability. In fact, the latter consistency can already be derived from the identity and the Donsker class assumption since the identity can be applied to any pathwise differentiable target feature (e.g., survival function at any point in its domain) giving an $O_{P}(1/n^{1/2})$ rate of convergence of $\Psi ({\hat {P}}_{n})-\Psi (P_{0})$ for a class of target features $\Psi$.

Then, we have shown that

$\Psi ({\hat {P}}n)-\Psi (P_{0})={\frac {1}{n}}\sum {i=1}^{n}D_{P_{0}}^{*}(O_{i})+o_{P}(n^{-1/2})$

and thereby asymptotic linearity and efficiency of the NPMLE for target feature $\Psi (P_{0})$. Applying this uniformly for a class of pathwise differentiable features, then also provides asymptotic efficiency for functional parameters such as a survival function of the underlying failure times.

Career

Van der Laan's academic career began at the University of California, Berkeley in 1994 as an Assistant Professor of Biostatistics. He ascended through the ranks to become a full Professor in 2000, holding joint appointments in the School of Public Health and the Department of Statistics. He served as the Chair of the Group of Biostatistics from 2018 to 2024. Since its inception in 2020, he has been the co-Director of the Center for Targeted Machine Learning and Causal Inference (CTML) at the University of California, Berkeley. Van der Laan is also the co-founder of TL Revolution, an enterprise consulting and software solutions company, grounded in Targeted Learning.

Mark J. van der Laan's research is extensive and interdisciplinary, combining rigorous statistical theory with innovative applications and causal inference. His contributions embody a profound commitment to advancing statistical science in the service of public health and medical research. They have not only enriched the field of biostatistics but have also had a tangible impact on the broader scientific community. Van der Laan’s contributions can be divided into several key areas:

1. Development of Statistical Methodologies:

Van der Laan has pioneered in developing statistical methodologies aimed at analyzing high-dimensional censored longitudinal data derived from observational, real-world data studies and randomized clinical trials. His work is characterized by the development and application of semiparametric statistical theory to solve problems in complex data structures arising in the real world.

2. Causal Inference:

He has made substantial contributions to the field of causal inference, particularly in the context of longitudinal studies. Van der Laan's research in this area has focused on developing methods that account for informative treatment assignment and informative censoring, which are common challenges in clinical and epidemiological research.

3. Adaptive Designs and Surveillance Systems:

Van der Laan has been instrumental in advancing adaptive designs within clinical trials. His research includes the development of  targeted adaptive designs with corresponding targeted maximum likelihood estimators that allow for more flexible and efficient trial designs, while preserving the robust unbiased inference of RCTs, thereby enhancing the ability to make timely and accurate decisions during the trial process.

4. Machine Learning Algorithms:

Among his notable contributions is the development of the Highly Adaptive Lasso (HAL) algorithm. HAL represents a new class of machine learning algorithms that has remarkable theoretical statistical properties, such as dimension free rates of convergence, pointwise asymptotic normality and asymptotic efficiency for plug-in estimation of smooth features of the target function. It has shown promise in many applications, including data-driven prediction models, conditional density estimation, conditional treatment effect estimation, intensity estimation, and variable selection in high-dimensional and multi-modal data settings.

5. Targeted Learning:

Perhaps one of Van der Laan's most significant contributions is the development of Targeted Learning, a framework that combines the strengths of machine learning and traditional statistical inference. The cornerstone of this approach is the Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE), which provides a robust, flexible methodology for estimating causal effects and parameters in complex models. This approach is designed to reduce bias and improve efficiency, making it particularly suitable for observational data and complex longitudinal studies.

6. Collaborative Research and Software Development:

Van der Laan actively engages in collaborative research, working with interdisciplinary scientists across the world to apply Targeted Learning to real-world problems. He has also contributed to the development of several software packages and publicly available educational materials, making his methodologies accessible to a wider research community.

Honors and awards

Throughout his career, Van der Laan has received numerous awards and honors, including the Mortimer Spiegelman Award for outstanding contributions to health statistics; the van Dantzig Prize, the highest award in Statistics and Decision Theory in the Netherlands; and the COPSS Presidents' Award for outstanding contributions to the statistics profession. His work has been recognized globally, with invitations to keynote talks and lectureships worldwide. He received the COPSS Presidents' Award in 2005, the Mortimer Spiegelman Award in 2004, and the van Dantzig Award in 2005.

Most Recent Publications:

Year	Authors	Title	Journal/Conference	DOI/URL (if available)
2021	A. Benitez, ML Petersen, MJ van der Laan, N Santos	Comparative methods for the analysis of cluster randomized trials	arXiv preprint arXiv:2110.09633	Link
2021	I Malenica, RV Phillips, R Pirracchio, A Chambaz, MJ van der Laan	Personalized Online Machine Learning	Under revision for Statistics in Medicine	https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.10452
2021	CJ Kennedy, DG Mark, J Huang, MJ van der Laan	Development of an ensemble machine learning prognostic model to predict 60-day risk of major adverse cardiac events in adults with chest pain	To be submitted to MedRxiv
2020	MJ van der Laan	Highly Adaptive Lasso technical report	University of California Berkeley
2018	MJ van der Laan, I Malenica	Robust Estimation of Data-Dependent Causal Effects based on Observing a Single Time-Series	arXiv preprint arXiv:1809.00734	Link
2017	Mark van der Laan	A generally efficient TMLE with the Highly Adaptive Lasso	International Journal of Biostatistics	https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/ijbist/v13y2017i2p35n1.html
2007	Mark J. van der Laan, Eric C. Polley, Alan E. Hubbard	Super Learner	Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology, volume 6, issue 1.	https://biostats.bepress.com/ucbbiostat/paper222/
2006	Mark J. van der Laan, Daniel Rubin	Targeted Maximum Likelihood Learning	UC Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series	https://biostats.bepress.com/ucbbiostat/paper213/

For all of Mark van der Laan’s work, please visit his Google Scholar.

Teaching and Mentorship

As an educator, Van der Laan has taught a wide range of courses at UC Berkeley, from introductory statistics, survival analysis, adaptive designs, multiple testing,  to advanced statistical theory and causal inference. He has mentored over 55 Ph.D. students and 20 postdoctoral fellows, many of whom have gone on to make significant contributions in academia, industry, and public health.