Next United Kingdom general election in Wales

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Next United Kingdom general election in Wales
← 2019 No later than 28 January 2025 Next →
All 32 Welsh seats to the House of Commons
  First party Second party Third party
  Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Rhun ap Iorwerth
Leader Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Rhun ap Iorwerth
Party Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru
Leader since 4 April 2020 24 October 2022 16 June 2023
Last election 22 seats, 40.9% 14 seats, 36.1% 4 seats, 9.9%
Seats before 21 13 3
New constituencies to be used

The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025. 32 seats will be up for election in Wales as the general election will occur after the recently completed boundary review took effect.

Election[edit]

Date[edit]

The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 repealed the Fixed-term Parliament Act 2011 meaning that the latest date that a new election could be called is before 17 December 2024, with election day no later than 28 January 2025.[1] The UK prime minister is also now able to call a general election.[2]

Number of Welsh MPs[edit]

As required by the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 as amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, the number of seats in Wales must be reduced to 32 to more accurately reflect its share of registered voters, including one coinciding with the Isle of Anglesey. The Boundary Commission for Wales is responsible for drawing up proposals for the new constituency boundaries, but it must abide by this total.

The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies began in 2020 and concluded in 2023. Initial proposals were published in September 2021.[3] The revised proposals were published on 19 October 2022 followed by a four-week consultation period.[4] On 28 June 2023, the Boundary Commission for Wales published its final recommendations for the new Welsh constituencies.[5] These changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November[6] and came into force on 29 November.[7]

Constituencies[edit]

Welsh MPs not seeking re-election[edit]

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election
MP Seat First elected Party Date announced
Wayne David Caerphilly 2001 Labour 11 February 2022[8]
Hywel Williams Arfon 2001 Plaid Cymru 11 November 2022[9]
David Jones Clwyd West 2005 Conservative 20 September 2023[10]
Christina Rees Neath 2015 Labour 1 February 2024[11]

Candidates[edit]

Main article: Candidates in the next United Kingdom general election
Constituency (2024–) Constituency (2010–24) Conservative Labour Liberal Democrats Reform UK Green Party Plaid Cymru Others Incumbent
Aberafan Maesteg Aberavon Stephen Kinnock[12] Labour Stephen Kinnock
Bangor Aberconwy Aberconwy Claire Hughes[13][14] Rachael Roberts[15] Thomas Clark[16] Petra Haig[17] Catrin Wager[18] John Humberstone[19] (Workers) Conservative Robin Millar
Alyn and Deeside Jeremy Kent[citation needed] Mark Tami Vicky Roskams[16] Karl MacNaughton[20] Jack Morris[21] Daniel McNay[22] (SDP)

Taghrid Al-Mawed[23] (Workers) Paul Ashton[24] (Abolish the Welsh Assembly)

Labour Mark Tami
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith[25] Jackie Charlton[citation needed] Niamh Salkeld[21] Labour Nick Smith
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Brecon and Radnorshire Fay Jones[26] Matthew Dorrance[27] David Chadwick[28][15] Adam Hill[16] Amerjit Kaur-Dhaliwal[29] Emily Durrant-Munro[21] Conservative Fay Jones
Bridgend Bridgend Sam Trask[citation needed] Chris Elmore[30] Claire Waller[15] Caroline Jones[16] Conservative Jamie Wallis
Ogmore Labour Chris Elmore
Caerphilly Chris Evans[31][note 1] Lindsay Whittle[32][note 2] Labour Wayne David
Cardiff East Cardiff Central Jo Stevens Rodney Berman[33][15] Sam Coates[34] Cadewyn Skelley[35] Labour Jo Stevens
Cardiff North Joel Williams[citation needed] Anna McMorrin[36] Stewart Sutherland[16] Meg Shepherd-Foster[34] Labour Anna McMorrin
Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty Alex Wilson[15] Alan Pick[16] Anthony Slaughter[34] Labour Stephen Doughty
Cardiff West James Hamblin[citation needed] Kevin Brennan [citation needed] Peter Hopkins[16] Jess Ryan[34] Kiera Marshall[21] Akil Kata[37] (Workers) Labour Kevin Brennan
Caerfyrddin Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Simon Hart[38] Martha O'Neil[39] Chris Passmore[15] Bernard Holton[16] Ann Davies[40] Independent (formerly Plaid Cymru) Jonathan Edwards
Ceredigion Preseli Ceredigion Aled Thomas[41] Jackie Jones[42][note 3] Mark Williams[43][15][note 4] Ben Lake[44][45] Plaid Cymru Ben Lake
Clwyd East Delyn James Davies[46] Becky Gittins[47] Alec Dauncey[15] Lee Lavery[20] Paul Penlington[48] Independent (formerly Conservative) Rob Roberts
Clwyd North Clwyd West Darren Millar[49] Gill German[50] David Wilkins[15] Jamie Orange[16] Martyn Hogg[20][17] Paul Rowlinson[21] Conservative David Jones
Vale of Clwyd Conservative James Davies
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Dwyfor Meirionnydd Tomos Day[51] Joanna Stallard[52] Karl Drinkwater[17] Liz Saville Roberts[53] Tomas Owen[54] (Workers) Plaid Cymru Liz Saville Roberts
Arfon Plaid Cymru Hywel Williams
Gower Marc Jenkins Tonia Antoniazzi[55] Franck Banza[15] Kieran Pritchard[21] Labour Tonia Antoniazzi
Llanelli Charlie Evans[56] Nia Griffith Gareth Beer[16] Rhodri Davies[57] Stan Robinson (UKIP)[58]

David Evans[59] (Workers)

Labour Nia Griffith
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones[60] David Griffin[61] Francis Whitefoot[21] Anthony Cole[62] (Workers) Labour Gerald Jones
Cynon Valley Labour Beth Winter[note 5]
Mid and South Pembrokeshire Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb[38] Henry Tufnell[47] Alistair Cameron[15] Conservative Simon Hart
Preseli Pembrokeshire Conservative Stephen Crabb
Monmouthshire Monmouth David TC Davies[63] Catherine Fookes[64] June Davies (True and Fair)[65] Conservative David TC Davies
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr Montgomeryshire Craig Williams[66] Steve Witherden[52] Glyn Preston[15] Oliver Lewis[16] Jeremy Brignell-Thorp[66] Elwyn Vaughan[67] Conservative Craig Williams
Clwyd South Conservative Simon Baynes[note 6]
Neath and Swansea East Neath Carolyn Harris[68][note 7] Helen Clarke[citation needed] David Richard[16] Andrew Jenkins[21] Labour Christina Rees
Newport East Rachel Buckler[69] Jessica Morden John Miller[15] Lucy Murphy[16] Jonathan Clark[21] Pippa Bartolotti (Independent) [70] Labour Jessica Morden
Newport West and Islwyn Islwyn Nick Jones[citation needed] Ruth Jones Mike Hamilton[15] Paul Taylor[16] Brandon Ham[21] Labour Chris Evans
Newport West Labour Ruth Jones
Pontypridd Alex Davies-Jones David Mathias[15] Darren James[16] Angela Karadog[34] Wil Rees[21] Labour Alex Davies-Jones
Rhondda and Ogmore Rhondda Chris Bryant[71] Gerald Francis[15] Mark Bundy[16] Christine Glossop[61] Labour Chris Bryant
Swansea West Swansea West Mike O'Carroll[15] Patrick Benham-Crosswell[16] Gwyn Williams[21] Independent (formerly Labour) Geraint Davies
Swansea East Labour Carolyn Harris
Torfaen Nathan Edmunds[72] Nick Thomas-Symonds[73] Ian Williams[16] Matthew Jones[21] Mohd Najmul Alam Shabuj[74] (Workers) Labour Nick Thomas-Symonds
Vale of Glamorgan Kanishka Narayan[75] Steven Rajam[15] Toby Rhodes[16] Lynden Mack[34] Mark Hooper[76] Stuart Field[77] (Abolish the Welsh Assembly) Conservative Alun Cairns
Wrexham Sarah Atherton[78] Andrew Ranger[78] Tim Sly[15] Charles Dodman[16] Tim Morgan[79] Becca Martin[78] Conservative Sarah Atherton
Ynys Môn Ieuan Môn Williams[75] Leena Farhat[15] Emmett Jenner[16] Martin Schwaller[80][17] Llinos Medi[81] Conservative Virginia Crosbie

Opinion polling[edit]

Main article: Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election § Wales

The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.

Poll results[edit]

This section is transcluded from Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election. (edit | history)
Graph of opinion polls conducted in Wales
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab Con Plaid Cymru Lib Dems Reform Green Others Lead
22–23 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 840 40% 18% 14% 6% 18% 4% 0% 22
23–24 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 878 49% 16% 10% 5% 15% 5% 1% 33
20 Mar 2024 Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales[82]
18 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 874 45% 22% 10% 5% 13% 5% 1% 23
24–26 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 48% 20% 10% 4% 12% 4% 1% 28
10–11 Dec 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,086 47% 22% 11% 6% 10% 2% 0% 25
4–7 Dec 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,004 42% 20% 15% 7% 12% 3% 1% 22
12–13 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 44% 24% 13% 4% 9% 5% 1% 20
14–15 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 959 46% 26% 10% 3% 10% 4% 0% 20
16–17 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,172 44% 22% 10% 9% 7% 6% 1% 22
1–6 Sep 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,051 50% 19% 12% 5% 8% 5% 2% 31
13–14 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,068 41% 24% 13% 7% 11% 4% 0% 17
14–16 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 46% 24% 10% 7% 10% 3% 1% 22
17–18 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 43% 22% 10% 7% 12% 4% 1% 21
16 Jun 2023 Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[83]
12–17 May 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,064 49% 19% 10% 8% 9% 4% 1% 30
14–15 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,058 43% 23% 11% 8% 9% 4% 1% 20
15–17 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,251 44% 24% 12% 7% 9% 4% 0% 20
17–23 Feb 2023 YouGov WalesOnline 1,083 53% 19% 12% 4% 8% 3% 1% 34
3–7 Feb 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,081 49% 20% 14% 5% 9% 3% 1% 29
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,042 51% 18% 13% 4% 8% 4% 2% 33
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 Survation 38 Degrees 6,012 51% 24% 13% 6% – – 6% 27
20–22 Sep 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,014 46% 23% 15% 5% 5% 3% 3% 23
12–16 Jun 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,020 41% 26% 16% 7% 4% 4% 2% 15
5 May 2022 Local elections held in Wales[84]
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,086 41% 26% 13% 7% 6% 4% 3% 15
13–16 Dec 2021 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,009 41% 26% 13% 3% 7% 6% 3% 15
27 Sep – 1 Oct 2021 YouGov ? ? 39% 29% 17% 3% 5% – 7% 10
13–16 Sep 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,071 37% 31% 15% 4% 6% 5% 2% 6
6 May 2021 Election to the Senedd[85]
2–4 May 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,071 37% 36% 14% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1
18–21 Apr 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,142 37% 33% 18% 2% 3% 4% 3% 4
9–19 Apr 2021 Opinium Sky News 2,005 42% 33% 14% 3% – 3%
5%
UKIP on 3%
Other on 2%
 9
16–19 Mar 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,174 35% 35% 17% 4% 2% 3% 3% Tie
24 Jan 2021 Andrew RT Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[86]
11–14 Jan 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,018 36% 33% 17% 3% 5% 4% 2% 3
26–30 Oct 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,013 43% 32% 13% 3% 5% 3% 2% 11
28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,110 41% 33% 15% 2% 4% 3% 2% 8
29 May – 1 Jun 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,021 39% 35% 15% 5% 2% 3% 1% 4
3–7 Apr 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,008 34% 46% 11% 4% 3% 2% 0% 12
20–26 Jan 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,037 36% 41% 13% 5% 3% 2% 1% 5
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 40.9% 36.1% 9.9% 6.0% 5.4% 1.0% 0.7% 4.8

Seat projections[edit]

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Lab Con Plaid Cymru Lib Dems Notes
20 Oct 2022 People Polling 1,237 35 0 4 1 Assumes 40 Welsh seats. Seats will be reduced to 32.
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 22 14 4 0

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ incumbent MP for Islwyn
  2. ^ was Member of the Welsh Assembly for South Wales East from 2011 to 2016
  3. ^ an MEP for Wales (2019–2020)
  4. ^ was MP for Ceredigion (2005–2017)
  5. ^ Was not reselected as a candidate
  6. ^ Baynes is the incumbent MP for Clwyd South in Wales, and is standing in North Shropshire in England.
  7. ^ Incumbent MP for Swansea East

References[edit]

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