2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Joe Biden
(presumptive)
Donald Trump
(presumptive)
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris
(presumptive)
TBA

Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



The 2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Minnesota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Minnesota has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

Minnesota is a slightly to moderately blue state and has the longest active streak of voting for Democratic presidential nominees of any U.S. state, as it has not voted for a Republican for president since Richard Nixon won the state in his 1972 49-state landslide. Despite this, Minnesota is not usually seen as safely blue and could be targeted by both parties in 2024: no presidential Democrat since landslide winner LBJ (who ran with favorite son Hubert Humphrey) in 1964 has hit 55% of the vote in the state, with the only ones even carrying the state by double digits since then being Humphrey in 1968, Jimmy Carter (who shared the ticket with favorite son Walter Mondale) in 1976, Bill Clinton in both of his 1990s nationwide victories, and fellow Midwesterner Barack Obama in 2008; in addition, the state was particularly close in 1984 (in which the state narrowly handed Mondale his only state victory), 2000, 2004 and 2016. Nonetheless, Minnesota is generally expected to lean towards the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024,[2] and if this holds true in November, it will be the thirteenth consecutive Democratic win.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3]

Primary elections[edit]

Republican primary[edit]

The Minnesota Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Minnesota Republican primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 232,855 69.1% 27
Nikki Haley 97,195 28.8% 12
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 4,084 1.2%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,470 0.4%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,431 0.4%
Total: 337,035 100.00% 39 39
Source: [4]


Democratic primary[edit]

The Minnesota Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Minnesota Democratic primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 171,278 70.1% 64
Uncommitted 45,914 18.8% 11
Dean Phillips 18,960 7.8%
Marianne Williamson 3,459 1.4%
Write-in votes 2,000 0.8%
Jason Palmer 758 0.3%
Cenk Uygur 692 0.3%
Armando Perez-Serrato 372 0.2%
Gabriel Cornejo 323 0.1%
Frankie Lozada 290 0.1%
Eban Cambridge 235 0.1%
Total: 242,594 100% 75 17 92
Source: [5]

Legal Marijuana Now primary[edit]

The Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

2024 Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
Krystal Gabel (withdrew) 759 28.84% -
Dennis Schuller 459 17.44% 7
Vermin Supreme 397 15.08% 6
Rudy Reyes 365 13.87% 5
Edward Forchion 168 6.38% 2
Willie Nelson (write-in) 19 0.72% 0
Other write-ins 465 17.67% -
Total: 2,632 100.00% 20
Source: [6]

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[7] Likely D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[8] Lean D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Likely D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] Lean D December 14, 2023
CNalysis[11] Likely D December 30, 2023
CNN[12] Lean D January 14, 2024

Polling[edit]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA[b] February 23–28, 2024 1,603 (LV) ± 2.8% 42% 38% 20%
SurveyUSA[b] January 24–29, 2024 1,594 (LV) ± 2.8% 42% 39% 19%
Embold Research/MinnPost November 14–17, 2023 1,519 (LV) ± 2.6% 45% 42% 13%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 477 (LV) ± 4.4% 40% 38% 22%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 6–8, 2023 500 (LV) 48% 40% 12%
Hypothetical polling
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 6–8, 2023 500 (LV) 45% 43% 12%

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by KSTP-TV, WDIO-TV, & KAAL-TV

References[edit]

  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  2. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 4, 2024.
  3. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  4. ^ "Minnesota Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
  5. ^ "2024 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RESULTS". OFFICE OF THE MINNESOTA SECRETARY OF STATE STEVE SIMON. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  6. ^ "Certification of Results of 2024 Presidential Nomination Primary". Minnesota Secretary of State. March 12, 2024.
  7. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.